With the launch date of the Apple Vision Pro around the corner, it’s time to revisit one of the key buzz terms from 2020-2023. The Metaverse.
By the end of this post, I’ll try to answer the following questions.
- Does the release of the Vision Pro validate the VR/AR segment?
- Does the release of the Vision Pro mean that the metaverse narrative is coming back?
Spoiler: I think so.
Before continuing, let’s look at how Apple tends to go about their business.
Apple is one of the few Trillion Dollar companies and they go about their business in a distinct and strategic fashion. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that Apple uses other companies as their R&D team.
What I mean by this, is that Apple always waits for another company to create a “revolutionary” product and bring it to market. Apple then measures public opinion, sees whether they can do better and then “clone” the product with a better marketing strategy.
Let me prove it.
MP3 player
The first product that you likely think about when you hear about the MP3 player is the iPod. You might be surprised to know that the first MP3 player released to the public was the MPMan by the South Korean company SaeHan Information Systems, 3 years earlier in 1998.
Smartphone
The first successful ‘smartphone’ was the Blackberry. I count this as a smartphone due to all the capabilities it had. Many of which we still use today.
Apple however did their homework, saw a gap in the market and exploited it to the max. The introduction of the iPhone was brilliant and one that I would consider a monumental shift in the way tech was looked at. As aspirational products.
Tablet
There were several brands with attempts in the tablet space, but none succeeded. In fact there was a lot of pushback from critics saying that a device that sits between a smartphone and a laptop was redundant. That was until Apple came in full force with the iPad and seemingly created the whole category.
Smartwatch
There were many companies attempting to be the first in the then non-existent smartwatch category. Some of the better attempts came from Sony Ericsson with their MBW 150 and 200 models which came out in 2007/2008. It wasn’t until 7 years later in 2015 when Apple came out with the Apple watch and stealing the show, appearing again, as the creator and innovator of the category.
AirPods
Lastly, we have Bluetooth headphones and to be fair, apart from a few brands on the likes of Kickstarter, Apple were one of the first brands that came to market with wireless earbuds. It still stands that Apple appear to have created the category, with the word AirPods used interchangeably for wireless earbuds by many people.
The Facts
Let’s face it, these guys are pioneers. While I dislike Apple due to their cult following who praise every little thing that they do, I have to remain objective and admit that they have set the cultural and technological trend since they first came out. Apple has fundamentally changed the way we consume media, time and time again.
After establishing Apple’s pattern of perfecting and popularizing existing technology, it’s essential to consider how this strategy might play out with the Apple Vision Pro within the broader VR category and the metaverse landscape.
The VR category
VR headsets have been around for a long time and for the entirety of it’s history, this category was aimed towards hardcore gaming. This however, has been changing over the last couple of years with Facebook betting big to the point of changing their name to Meta.
Why? While an argument can be made that Facebook had a long term vision as evidenced by their purchase of Oculus in 2014 as well as being the drivers of the movement, I believe it’s due to the 2020/2021 crypto and NFT narrative of metaverses.
This was a wild time where everyone was caught up in the hype with people buying virtual land, music artists releasing albums as NFTs and existing brands releasing digital fashion lines.
This “gold rush” died down when the bear market started and I’m glad it did as it meant that the scammers and fraudsters moved onto newer pastures. What remained were the hardworking teams that had a real vision and belief in developing a digital metaverse and companies trying to bring VR to the masses (Meta being one of them).
The Final Word:
Despite the $3,500 price tag that puts the Apple Vision Pro out of reach for the masses (for now) do I believe that this release is a validation of the Metaverse and crypto? Maybe. It’s definitely a vote of confidence from a company that knows a thing or two about spotting winning trends and being the catalyst for mainstream adoption.
My focus over the upcoming year therefore is to invest in companies and projects that fit this narrative. While I know that many of these projects will fail, this method of investing falls within my Mimetic Desire investment philosophy.
Apple is a beast in both identifying trends and marketing. I have enough confidence based on this historical context that Apple and the Vision Pro will be a success. Apple does not bet BIG on something they do not feel has a 95% chance of success.
We are now entering the 4th quarter and with Apple now joining, it is truly game on.
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